Sunday, May 20, 2007

YELT Guarantees*: The NBA Conference Finals

We do things a little differently here.

We (by that I mean I) didn't watch an NBA game until April, yet still feel caught up enough to rationally discuss the NBA playoffs. Nothing of extreme importance happened before then, except I remember some talk about the basketball giving players paper cuts.

Also, when we preview a basketball matchup, we don't do it on a position-by-position basis (Like Scouts, Inc. at the World Wide Leader). Comparing Michael Finley to Derek Fisher and awarding a team an advantage based on that is completely irrelevant, calling Ginobili a member of the Spurs' bench (when he plays 33 minutes in Game 1) borders on the ridiculous.

Basketball hinges on the outcome of several key matchups. For the most part, we know what these guys are capable of, but some things remain in the air as we try to determine a winner.

San Antonio vs. Utah

Important thing #1: Tony Parker vs. Deron Williams
I look a lot more intelligent saying this after the first game of this series, but anyone who thinks Parker is the better player here reads Sports Illustrated (It's like Joe DiMaggio and Marilyn Monroe!). Just because you engage in cloitus with a bad actress doesn't make you a first-rate point guard.


If Deron Williams was hitting this, you'd know he's a badass.

Parker was decent in the Suns series, but Williams was better against the Warriors. Williams still tends to have a couple stinkers per series, but so does Parker.

And then there's what they did in Game 1:
Parker- 8-15 FG, 5 FTM, 6 AST, 3 STL, 6 TO
Williams- 13-23 FG, 2 3PM, 6 FTM, 7 REB, 9 AST, 1 TO

Advantage: Jazz.

Important thing #2: Can Carlos Boozer come close to producing like Tim Duncan?

Before Game 1, there may have been the shred of hope that if Boozer could score, rebound, pass and block near to what Duncan does for the Spurs, the Jazz supporting cast could get them a series win.

It doesn't look like that's going to happen, as Duncan looked like Duncan in game one and Boozer looked like a more coordinated Rafael Araujo.

Advantage: Spurs.

Important thing #3: Is Manu Ginobili going to be the second-best (hell, or the best) player in the series?

By the end of the Suns series, Ginobili was having more of an impact on the result than Duncan (Game 6: 33-11-6-4 stl). If he continues to play at that level, the Spurs are the champions. The Jazz were so good against the Warriors because they had four guys playing at a very high level (Kirilenko, Okur, Boozer and Williams). Through one game with San Antonio, it looks like Duncan and Ginobili (and Oh Boy! Fabricio Oberto!) are the hotness. Deron Williams matched them in this one, but he needed Okur, Kirilenko, Fisher or Boozer to help out. They didn't and that's a bad sign.

Advantage: Spurs.

Prediction: Spurs in 7.

Detroit vs. Cleveland

And now, the least awaited conference final since the NHL conference finals started:

Seriously though, watching the Detroit-Cleveland series won't make you go blind.


Don't worry, your mom was lying about that other thing, too.

Since it's an overwhelmingly negative focus here, we'll follow suit. In doing this, we hope to find the second least worst team.

Important thing #1: Who is Cleveland's second-best player? (Express your answer in tears.)

It's probably Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but only because it can't be Drew Gooden, Aleksandar Pavlovic or Larry Hughes (Have you ever gotten a fourth-grader drunk and then made him/her take 17 jumpers during an NBA playoff game? Then you have an accurate frame of reference for Larry Hughes.)

Disadvantage: Cleveland.

Important thing #2: Is one ever better than four?

Except for sexually transmitted diseases, I can't think of many examples (Although, a needle in the wenis is a needle in the wenis). LeBron is Duncan-esque in the impact he has on a game, but I don't remember a team winning multiple games on one guy's shoulders with little or no help from anybody. In game two against the Nets, LeBron had possibly the best individual game of the postseason (36 pts, 12 ast, etc.). Nobody else from the Cavs did anything. Enough to beat the Nets (greet the Nets), but not Detroit. Prince + Billups + Wallace + Hamilton > LeBron.

Disadvantage: Cleveland.

Important thing #3: Will there be a game where all the fans throw up like when Chunk dumped the fake puke in the movie theater in Goonies?

Yeah, probably.

Disadvantage: rods and cones.

Prediction: Detroit in 5.

*not a guarantee

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